/ Run my numbers

What's it
worth to you_

Three inputs from your shop · live math · no spreadsheet.

Estimated revenue recovered · per year
$1,688
≈ 23 customers brought back a year · about $141/mo on top of what you make today.
Winback · lapsed regulars $563/yr
Restock alerts $1,125/yr
Restock Notify · Starter −$168/yr
Your net, every year +$1,520

It pays for itself if you bring back just 3 customers a year. Deliberately conservative: we model a 5% winback conversion and a 5% restock-alert conversion, the low end of published benchmarks (Omnisend 2024–25, across 27,000+ brands). Your real number shows on your dashboard within 30 days.

If those sliders feel abstract

Three shops at different scales.

Same conservative model, three shop sizes. 5% winback conversion, 5% restock-alert conversion, 30% of regulars drifting per year.

Small specialty shop
300 customers
$55 sale · 15 restock alerts/mo
Winback (lapsed regulars)$248/yr
Restock alerts$495/yr
Customers brought back~14
Recovered / year
$743
Net after the $168/yr plan · +$575 / yr
Mid-stage independent
800 customers
$75 sale · 30 restock alerts/mo
Winback (lapsed regulars)$900/yr
Restock alerts$1,350/yr
Customers brought back~30
Recovered / year
$2,250
Net after the $168/yr plan · +$2,082 / yr
Growing flagship
2,000 customers
$90 sale · 60 restock alerts/mo
Winback (lapsed regulars)$2,700/yr
Restock alerts$3,240/yr
Customers brought back~66
Recovered / year
$5,940
Net after the $168/yr plan · +$5,772 / yr
How we calculate this

The math, out loud.

No black box. Here's exactly what the calculator does and the industry numbers behind each assumption.

The formula

Two recovery engines, both run at conservative conversion rates.

winback_per_yr = customers × lapse_rate (30%) × 5% × AOV
restock_per_yr = (alerts/mo × 12) × 5% × AOV
recovered = winback_per_yr + restock_per_yr

Why 5%, when some studies show far more? Because we'd rather you be pleasantly surprised than disappointed. The published benchmarks are higher, so we use the floor on purpose:

  • Restock / back-in-stock alerts convert at 5–7% across 27,000+ brands (Omnisend, 2024–25), roughly 3× a normal marketing email (~1.7%, Mailchimp / Klaviyo), because the customer already asked to be told. We use 5%, the bottom of that range.
  • Winback to lapsed regulars converts at 3–5% across a short message sequence (Omnisend, 2024–25). We use 5%.
  • Lapse rate of 30%: the share of your regulars who quietly drift away in a year. DTC data runs as high as 60%, and we use half that, because community shops keep customers longer.

What we don't count (so the number stays honest): the bigger baskets restocked customers tend to buy, the repeat purchases after someone comes back, word-of-mouth, or the hours you save not running spreadsheets. All real, none included.

The catch: the model assumes you actually send the alerts and review the drafted winbacks. Sign up and never log in, and recovery is zero, the same as a spreadsheet. About 15 minutes a day once you're set up.

Sources: Omnisend 2025 Ecommerce & SMS benchmarks (27,000+ brands) · Mailchimp / Klaviyo 2024 email benchmarks · Reichheld, The Loyalty Effect (Bain & Co., 1996) · Gruen, Corsten & Bharadwaj / HBR, 2004
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