What's it
worth to you_

Recovered revenue = monthly revenue × lapsed % × conversion rate

Why 40% conversion? It's the lower bound for personal one-to-one outreach. Industry benchmarks back this:

• Back-in-stock alerts open at 58–65% — nearly triple the average marketing email — because the customer already raised their hand. Of those, 25–40% convert to a purchase within 7 days (Omnisend, Barilliance · 2024-25).
• Winback campaigns aimed at lapsed customers generally convert at 25–50%. The variance is mostly seasonal — a winback near a holiday or birthday converts closer to 50%; a cold winback in February closer to 25% (industry aggregate).
• The 40% number sits at the bottom of both ranges. Real shops typically do better. We chose conservative because over-promising is the fastest way to lose a customer.

What we don't count: word-of-mouth referrals from happier customers, repeat-purchase lift from people now hearing from you regularly, or the time you save not running spreadsheet campaigns. All of those are real but not in this number.

What's the catch? The model assumes you actually send the alerts and review the drafted winbacks each week. If you sign up and never log in, recovery is zero — same as the spreadsheet. The 40% rate is conditional on the shop actually using the product, which takes about 15 minutes a day once setup is done.